Has The Lebanon Ohio Real Estate Market Recovered?
The first thing that comes to mind when you ask someone about the real estate market is probably "THE MARKET IS HORRIBLE!!!". But is it true? We've been analyzing the local Warren County markets and finding there's a mix of results. For instance, Mason is rapidly recovering. On the other hand, the Little Miami School District is suffering badly and continuing to drop value.
So how is the Lebanon City School district performing? We've pulled the data straight from the Cincinnati MLS for the Lebanon City School District and there's no manipulation here, just straight numbers telling the story.
The first table is a year to year comparison, basic information as to how many homes sold, what the average price was, median price, and average days on market. We used 2005 as a baseline because it's well before things swept downwards in 2008/9.
So what does the year to year data comparison show us? Overall, when comparing the full year of 2010 to the full year of 2005, Average Prices were down 13% and Median Prices down 10%. Sales volume is not down as radically as some other areas we've examined. While losing roughly 10% in value isn't a great thing, at least we're not losing tremendous percentages like some areas of the country.
But we're most of the way through 2011, so how about some more recent data?
Okay, to keep things apples to apples, let's compare the first SEVEN months of each year and what do you get??
Okay, slightly better right? -12% and -8% are better than -13% and -10%, but still not where we'd like to see to conclusively show that we're truly recovering.
Let's take an even more recent segment, the last 7 weeks (August 1 - September 21, 2011) and what do we get? Average price is now $177,926 on volume of 53 homes, median price is $152,000 and days on market averaging 88. This is a mixed bag of signals, average is up, median is down, and days on market are down. So two out of three signals are positive. Homes ARE selling! For example, we closed the home to the left this month in Silverwood Farms.
So what is driving the median drop? Distressed properties, pure and simple. Of the 10 cheapest homes sold in the last seven weeks, 8 of 10 were either foreclosed or under short sale conditions, and ALL sold for less than $100,000. Until this section of the market becomes a much smaller player, the Lebanon City Schools real estate market won't be able to show a full recovery.
So what's our interpretation of the data?
That if we haven't hit the bottom of the curve, we're pretty close, and probably heading slightly up overall. We're not going to come flying back up out of the valley, and return to a slow, but steady increase in property values.
Lebanon continues to be a great place to live! Ohio magazine has selected Lebanon as one of the top 5 hometowns in Ohio for 2012. Lebanon offers great location, great activities, great schools and more! How the tax levy situation plays out will help determine how quickly Lebanon area homes recover value. We've closely watched what happened in Little Miami and we don't want to follow their example of plummeting values.
So if you've been holding off waiting for the RIGHT time?
If you're a buyer? You're probably in the window where you don't have to rush, but the very bottom may have already passed. Interest rates are still phenomenal and you don't want to miss that opportunity.
If you're a seller? If you don't HAVE to sell, waiting for further recovery might still be in your best interest. But if you've been waiting for signs of recovery because you are motivated to sell, well we can say it shouldn't get any worse. But again, that's our interpretation of the current data. We wish we could conclusively say that Lebanon has turned the corner like Mason, but the data isn't so clear cut. Your decision, and we'd be happy to meet with you and help you make the best possible decision for YOUR circumstances.
Serving Lebanon's residential real estate needs,
Liz and Bill aka BLiz
Serving Warren County Ohio & Adjacent Areas
The Liz Spear Team of RE/MAX Elite
Elizabeth Spear, ABR, CRS, Ohio License SAL.2002007747
William (Bill) Spear, CRS, Ohio License SAL.2004011109 Kentucky 77938
Ask for us by name if you visit the office!
Two locations: Lebanon & Mason, OH
Bill Direct: 513-520-5305
Liz Direct: 513-265-3004
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